Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 5 minutes ago, and this point is in it.
3 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest 5 km from here.
This alert is in force until 1 October 2026, 12:15 UTC.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 7 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued October 1 at 1:19AM CDT until October 1 at 7:15AM CDT by NWS Des Moines IA
Urban PEI: 961,820 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 15 March 2026
- October 1, 2026 · score 41 · 5.4 km
- July 3, 2026 · 14.0 km
- October 1, 2026 · score 41 · 16.1 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 41 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 41 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 41.0490, -96.2155 |
| Nearest City | Papillion (19 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 961.8K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-10-01T06:19:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.d29e1519f5336aec90ee91c283139c6380d213ee.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-10-01T06:19:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-10-01T05:41:33.074Z. Material modification: 2026-10-01T06:24:14.416Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
3 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d29e1519f5336aec90ee91c283139c6380d213ee.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Audubon, IA; Calhoun, IA; Carroll, IA; Crawford, IA; Greene, IA; Guthrie, IA; Shelby, IA; Cass, NE; Lancaster, NE and 7 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued October 1 at 1:19AM CDT until October 1 at 7:15AM CDT by NWS Des Moines IA |
| Expires | 2026-10-01T07:15:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Des Moines IA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 10 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d29e1519f5336aec90ee91c283139c6380d213ee.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.946a1a1147b81b84acf03aa21c3e8c4681a5231c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fcfbc5b3da082a9989bbad377563a8f4be6f0b1a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c8436907cb7552c9ef89bac3484eba06eea08f75.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.86c10058d6d8ed97b41a169fa709d95e1ee7bb2c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.954c57cb8a2abae02f29ad207df835d04e3585ad.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9ee2289a657bf6729df0a458901d615dda0f5b97.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.28c8a44fdd5c56fa3b8b0186ba6296a0ee93c9c5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0e3a3959ed11306375468a534918c49d89d5710d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.18ad46f72aed20f6b0a201c4d3dbca39a4024157.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | Heavy rain |
| Iem LsrCode | R |
| Iem LsrType | RAIN |
| Iem Magnitude | 7.37 |
| Iem Unit | Inch |
| Iem City | 4 ENE Lincoln |
| Iem County | Lancaster |
| Iem State | NE |
| Iem Wfo | OAX |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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